Singularity
n. A point of infinite density and infinitesimal volume, at which space
and time become infinitely distorted according to the theory of General
Relativity. According to the big bang theory, a gravitational
singularity existed at the beginning of the universe. Singularities are
also believed to exist at the centre of black holes.
– The American Heritage Science Dictionary
In
a spare one-room office at Nasa’s Silicon Valley campus, a small band
of futurists is plotting to save the world. The means are not a
revolutionary technology or a new world order (though both may be
byproducts). Rather, a new, pseudo-academic institution called Singularity University
is going to solve our grand challenges: poverty, hunger, energy
scarcity and climate change. Among others. Through a combination of
techno-optimism, wide-eyed idealism and belief in the perfectibility of
human beings, these well-connected geeks are creating an institution
meant to legitimise their most extreme thinking.
Forgive
them for dreaming big. We’re in, after all, the cradle of the personal
computer industry, the neighbourhood that brought forth Hewlett-Packard, Apple and Intel.
The Googleplex is just north of SU’s office, Yahoo’s campus just south.
Nasa tests the wings of its spacecraft here. Stanford University is up
the road. And the Singularity team has landed some of these titans as
partners in its endeavour.
Nasa offers more than office space:
it’s the host, and will grant access to its specialists and facilities.
Pete Worden, the director at Nasa’s Silicon Valley-based Ames Research
Centre, is an enthusiastic supporter and brought the university on
campus. Meanwhile, Google,
the first corporate partner, has contributed $250,000 – and Google
co-founder Larry Page attended the first meeting on the university last
autumn. As one Singularity staffer said: “Here in Silicon Valley, we’re
at the centre of the vortex.”
On a crisp February morning, I
made the 45-minute drive south from San Francisco to Ames, hoping to
understand how Singularity University might change the world – and why
it had backing from such an illustrious group of supporters. After
passing through a heavily fortified guard booth, I steered into the
heart of the Ames campus, a tranquil collection of sandy, Spanish
colonial-style buildings with well-manicured lawns. The stateliest of
these structures, topped with a bell tower, is the Lunar Sciences
building, where (funnily enough) scientists study the moon. Singularity
University is coming together on the ground floor.
. . .
The
office has all the trappings of a technology start-up: frisbees and
footballs scattered about, a corner full of free snacks and drinks, and
a communal table around which all members of the team work. Salim
Ismail (his blog’s title: “You’ve Got Ismail!”) is the school’s
executive director and a veteran of several technology-based start-ups.
Forty-something with a bald pate and an easy smile, Ismail describes
himself as “passionate about business, entrepreneurship, technology,
skiing, wine [and] tennis” with “a side hobby in metaphysics and
philosophy”. In other words, he’s the archetypal Silicon Valley male.
 |
| The Singularity University’s founders at the Lunar Science Institute |
Ismail
and his team are scrambling to get ready for Singularity University’s
first nine-week course, set to commence on June 29. More than 1,200
applicants have expressed interest in attending; 40 will be selected
for the first term; $25,000 a person covers tuition, room and board.
The inaugural class will be a mix of graduate students and businessmen
and women with time to spare. Classes are eight hours a day, six days a
week.
During the first three weeks of the programme, students will
receive an introduction to the school’s 10 main areas of study,
including artificial intelligence and robotics, biotechnology and
bioinformatics, and futures studies and forecasting. In the same way
that a liberal arts education delivers an overview of literature,
history and social theory, Singularity University intends to give
students a crash course in subjects such as neuroscience and “human
enhancement”. The second three weeks of the programme will give
students a chance to study, in-depth, a subject new to them. An expert
in nanotechnology, for example, might take on energy and the
environment. “The biggest innovations in the world happen when you
cross two disparate fields,” Ismail says. “[Johannes] Kepler looked at
the moon and the tides and thought they may be connected. Today, people
are doing 3D ‘printing’ of human organs using stem cells.” Linking
early astronomy to stem cell technology is a bit of a stretch, but
sure, intellectual cross-pollination can spur on innovation.
Will
this model really vary so vastly from ordinary higher education?
“Unfortunately, today’s graduate education is very narrow,” says Peter
Diamandis, one of the school’s founders and the chief executive of the
X Prize Foundation – which administers multimillion-dollar prizes for
advancements in space, automotive and genomics technologies. “You
become an expert on a particular channel on a nerve cell. That’s great,
it allows you to go down deep, but there’s no place that allows you to
step back, look at the big issues, and think.”
During the final
three weeks of the programme, students will reconvene and focus on “one
of the big, hairy challenges facing mankind”, such as hunger, climate
change or energy scarcity. One lead contender for the first year’s
challenge was how to administer telemedicine in remote parts of the
world – but that has been eclipsed by the vaguer, Miss America-esque
question: “how can you positively impact one billion people in a
decade?”
As part of my tour, Ismail takes me around the Ames
campus, or at least those few parts of it we are allowed to enter. At
the west end of the complex, Nasa’s kilometre-long wind tunnels (the
largest in the world) test the aerodynamics of aircraft and spacecraft.
Nearby, control centres support Nasa missions such as the Kepler
project, which is searching for habitable planets beyond our solar
system.
 |
| A former zeppelin hangar and retired aircraft at the Nasa Ames campus which houses the Singularity University |
But
beside these high-tech marvels stand some true technological relics,
reminders of how quickly the future becomes the past. To the east,
flanking a runway, are three gargantuan zeppelin hangars. The largest
is a Modernist revival behemoth and one of the biggest freestanding
structures in the world, decrepit after years of disuse. On the edge of
these installations is a series of dilapidated offices; next to one,
the nose of a retired military jet rusts in the California sun.
Singularity
University was inspired by the success of the International Space
University, founded in 1987 in Strasbourg, France – by Diamandis.
Through a similar series of courses and projects, the ISU aims to
prepare students for work in the space industries – everything from
space engineering to space policy and law. What began as a quirky
programme for aspiring astronauts has evolved into a well-respected,
accredited institution. A few years ago, Diamandis and the inventor Ray
Kurzweil, a longtime friend, wondered if they could do the same trick
again, with a school educating students about emerging technologies.
Using Kurzweil’s 2005 book The Singularity is Near as a sort of
founding document, they got to work, and last year secured a lease at
Nasa and a team of three full-time employees and 30 largely volunteer
faculty members. It is set up as a non-profit-making organisation, with
Kurzweil as the chancellor and Diamandis the executive director.
A
few days before visiting Ames, I caught up with Diamandis at San
Francisco’s Fairmont Hotel. Diamandis was attending the Cleantech
Forum, a gathering of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists hoping to
cash in on green technology. Diamandis also sees a market here – who
doesn’t? – and hopes SU can contribute. Yet he may be a bit more
extreme than his fellow forum-goers: technology won’t just solve our
energy needs, Diamandis argues, but all the world’s problems. “People
think there is always going to be hunger,” he said. “Well, no. That’s
not true. There doesn’t always have to be hunger.” Rather, in the near
future, nanobots – minuscule robots capable of performing exceptionally
complex tasks – will be able quickly and cheaply to produce food from
raw materials, say algae or dirt.
“What is food?” he pondered,
lounging on a sofa in one of the hotel’s dining rooms. It was early in
the morning, but Diamandis, a short, muscular man with wavy hair and
eyes that fix on you like a tractor beam, declined coffee or breakfast.
“It’s the rearrangement of atoms in a form the body can take in.”
Design a machine that can rearrange dust into an apple, and voilà! –
hunger is eradicated.
The term “the Singularity” was
popularised by Kurzweil and is now a catchphrase, in tech circles at
least. It describes “a future period during which the pace of
technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human
life will be irreversibly transformed”, according to The Singularity is Near,
which has become a veritable bible among futurists. In it, Kurzweil
speculates that by the middle of this century, artificial intelligence
will surpass human intellect, and enhanced humans will work in concert
with super-smart machines to manage the world’s resources.
 |
| Singularity
University founder Ray Kurzweil believes that one day the world will be
dominated by robots – perhaps successors to “QA” (for Question/Answer),
pictured here, the new telepresence robot from Anybots |
Kurzweil,
a 61-year-old former whizz kid from New York City, has a rosy view of
world domination by machines. Tiny robots will create abundant energy
and food while reversing pollution and climate change. A technological
utopia will ensue. Some critics – those who concede he might be right
about technological change transforming the human experience – worry
that smarter-than-human robots will turn on their creators, and that a
malicious artificial intelligence will wipe out mankind (Kurzweil
doesn’t rule out the possibility, but thinks it unlikely). Other
critics read about his desire to achieve immortality (he takes hundreds
of dietary supplements a day), or his questioning of whether the speed
of light is an immutable limit (he thinks not), and decide they’d
rather not engage in the argument.
And yet while a race of
intelligent robots to rival humans is still the stuff of fantasy,
machines are advancing at impressive speeds. Earlier this month, a
robot at Aberystwyth University in Wales formulated a hypothesis about
the genetics of bakers’ yeast – without intervention by its creators.
Then, the robot carried out experiments to test its theory. Back at the
Singularity offices, Ismail says: “This is going to happen in an
increasing way, but how are we going to manage it? We need to be a step
ahead of it. SU’s mandate is to understand and manage it in a more
proactive way.”
Every year, the Singularity Institute for
Artificial Intelligence, a Silicon Valley-based non-profit
organisation, hosts a summit focused on the future. Mainstream
academics, professionals, entrepreneurs and pundits attend. More
mainstream yet, The Singularity is Near is now being made into
a film (directed by Kurzweil – who also stars in it). But many people
who preach the Singularity are involved with more controversial
movements. Transhumanism, which aims to “extend human capabilities”,
takes the Singularity as one of its intellectual pillars. Many
“Singulartarians” are also advocates of cryonics, the process of
freezing a recently deceased body in the hope that future medical
technologies will be able to revive it. Kurzweil is signed up to be
frozen at his death.
Diamandis takes great pains to say that
the school is a stand-alone venture, not affiliated with any of the
other books, groups or events that also claim the Singularity moniker.
“The term ‘singularity’, for me, is a catch-all phrase meaning that
we’re dealing with exponentially growing technologies that have huge
and powerful implications for humanity,” he tells me. “I am not
promoting or predicting what people might call ‘The Singularity’.”
Ismail and his team also try to distance themselves from the diehard
Singulartarians, despite their many overlapping affiliations.
The
week I visited Singularity University’s offices, technology seemed to
have let down both Nasa and Google. On the Tuesday, a Nasa satellite
meant to study global carbon dioxide emissions failed to reach orbit,
scuttling the $278m mission – just when the government institution
needed to persuade the new US president of its merits. The next day,
Gmail, Google’s e-mail service, experienced a two-hour outage in the
middle of the European workday, disrupting productivity and calling
into question an increasing reliance on web services.
Technology,
as if people outside Silicon Valley need reminding, remains unreliable,
and machines, even when running smoothly, remain subject to human
error. Bill McKibben, an environmentalist who has spoken out against
rapid technological change, told me he was reserving judgment on
Singularity University until it was under way. But he seemed sceptical
of its ability to effect serious change. He said its success would
largely depend on whether “the students who end up there want to solve
actual human problems, which can sometimes benefit from technology,
usually in tandem with lots of other changes. Or if they are sci-fi,
afraid-of-dying types dreaming of the next big score to be made.”
. . .
McKibben
also cautions against overlooking ethical concerns amid the heady
frenzy of innovation that Singularity University hopes to cultivate.
“It’s important to have real, meaningful debates before we cross
important lines – germline genetic manipulation, for instance,” he
said. “The technical ability to do this stuff confers no special
insight on whether it should be done. I trust the visceral revulsion
against ‘designer babies’ more than the smooth assurances of the
boosters of the sleek future.”
McKibben is certainly not alone in
his reservations – and since Singularity University was first announced
to great fanfare this winter, both Google and Nasa seem to have begun
shying away from their involvement with the school. Worden, the
director of the Ames center, one of the University’s founders and the
man who got it housed on Nasa’s campus, turned down repeated requests
to be interviewed for this piece. In fact, no one from Nasa would speak
on the record about Singularity University.
Google, meanwhile,
denied repeated requests for an on-the-record interview with a
spokesperson. Finally, after encouragement from the SU team, the
company offered up Chris DiBona, a specialist in open-source computing
and Google’s point person for dealings with the school. DiBona seemed
excited about the opportunity to work with an interdisciplinary group.
He felt like his speciality, network computing, really could help
deliver telemedicine in remote parts of the world. But even DiBona was
mindful of the university’s strange pedigree. “Some of the stuff feels
very science fiction to me,” he said. “But that’s not necessarily a bad
thing. There’s an idealism that speaks well of the university. When you
try to work on the future, you’re going to be wrong sometimes. A little
zaniness goes a long way.”
For all the sci-fi overtones, the
projects that come out of Singularity University will be
well-intentioned, and it seems unlikely that any malicious artificial
intelligence will be designed in the halls of Ames Research Center – or
at least in SU’s corner. When pressed, Ismail backed away from the
assertion that Singularity University would be delivering
deployment-ready solutions to problems like hunger and energy scarcity.
“If we do nothing else,” he says, “just to bring people up to speed on
all these advances is an accomplishment and a full-time job.”
What
Singularity University can do with certainty, he says, is create an
atmosphere where people aren’t afraid to dream. “You can’t pre-script
innovation,” he said. “You can create an environment where you bring
together the best and brightest from disparate fields and very often
interesting things will happen.” But that begs a question: is Silicon
Valley a place where anyone is really afraid to dream big? Must you pay
$25,000 for the privilege? The big dreamers, it seems, may be the
Singularity University team, hitching a ride on a popular catchphrase
and harnessing it to corporate funding, government aid and a steady
revenue stream from wealthy students.
Before I left Ames, Ismail loaded me up with swag. He gave me a calendar from Nasa showing pictures of the cosmos, a copy of The Singularity Is Near signed
by Kurzweil, and a handful of Singularity University refrigerator
magnets – a refreshingly simple technology, reliable, very human, and
timeless.
David Gelles is a reporter in the FT’s San Francisco bureau
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